Sentiment Turning Bullish for Short-Term…We’ll See if it can hold

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Sentiment continues to improve with the better data out of China and less-bad data domestically from jobless claims to the trade balance.  NG continues to slowly rise, jumping above the $4 level in early trading this morning from the $4.62 low seen at the end of August.  Congesting now for a couple weeks near the lows from this spring, the market looks ready to move higher as it moves above the 18-day MA in its first 3-day rally since……well, the end of July (that’s how oversold we’ve become).  We are beginning to see more coal-to-gas switching which you would expect below $4/Dth, and that is likely to keep these values flat to higher heading into winter from here.  The first week of September marked the low last year, and we’ve probably already seen the low heading into the winter for this year…..we’ll see?  Overall I expect a weaker dollar and/or higher trade in equities today to continue to keep energies well supported heading into the DOE report tomorrow.