22/23 PJM Capacity – DOWN 65% from 21/22 PY
Plus several Comed Nukes did not clear in the auction. Price volatility and supply reliability may become an issue next summer!
NIPSCO GAS COST – 68% INCREASE May to June 2021
First – the NIPSCO tariff sheets that were filed with the IURC for May 2021 and June 2021. These sheets highlight the 68% increase in their GCA from month to month. NIPSCO has to recover over $90,000,000 from the February 2021 energy crisis. Expectations are that these increases will persist for the next 12-24 months as they work to recover the $90 mil hit.
- May 2021 – $4.13 per DTH
- June 2021 – $6.946 per DTH
This is huge for clean energy initiatives! Sounds expensive, who will pay and how? Time will tell but we are keeping a close eye on it!
President Joe Biden on Wednesday is set to sign several executive orders to tackle climate change and transition to a clean energy economy, the White House said.
The executive actions include establishing climate change as a national security priority, conserving at least 30% of federal land and oceans by 2030 and canceling new oil and gas leases on public lands and waters.
Madigan OUT! Solar funding takes a hit, for now..
a comprehensive energy bill is now needed to advance renewable energy initiatives in Illinois as a short term funding bridge has been denied.
OPEC – US Energy Independence = Renewables
Sorry to sound like a broken record, but if you know me, you’ve heard me say it a few times…..“to make renewable/clean energy more attractive, fossil fuels must get more expensive”
It appears the Biden policy is already working…..With Trump on his way out, Saudi Arabia unilaterally cut production by 1.0 million barrels per day in the months of February and March. The move enriched the country and has been a major factor in crude oil’s most recent seven-day oil price rise that drove the price back over $53 a barrel. The value of Saudi assets will rise, enriching the Kingdom while U.S. producers will not be able to fully take advantage of the price increase because of uncertainty about regulation in the future and fears about capital.
U.S. producers racked up a lot of debt during the COVID-19 demand crash and now banks are more reluctant to lend them money — not only for economic reasons but because of political correctness and pressure by investors to go green. Moody’s reports that North American oil exploration and production companies have about a billion in debt that will mature between now and 2024, and pipeline companies have an additional $123 billion in debt coming due over the same period.
Senate Control = Green New Deal = Solar Opportunity?
Democrat Senate control will make it easier to pass legislation aimed at curbing climate change. With Chuck Schumer as the Majority Leader, the democrats will have extensive power to decide legislative priorities and which bills advance to final vote.
Why you might care: This will impact both the speed and scope of potential “green new deal” energy laws and regulation at the federal level. Such things as solar power could receive a bigger push of incentives than before. Also – watch for aggressive individual state legislation to promote renewable energy and EV sales.
OPEC Reduces Oil Output, is this a sign of higher prices to come, or concerns over dropping demand???
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, said it would voluntarily cut 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of output in February and March, after OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers, including Russia, met earlier this week.
Nicor Rate Case Update
On December 11, 2020 NICOR filed Rebuttal Testimony. In its Rebuttal Testimony NICOR rejected all the proposals and arguments presented by intervenors. NICOR is essentially standing by its original proposal. NICOR did recognize that some changes need to be made for seasonal customers who do not use natural gas during certain seasons, such as the winter period. However, these changes only affect a few customers.
If the proposed changes are adopted by the ICC, the out-of-tolerance penalty costs for large customers could exceed hundreds of thousands of dollars per month or more. Based on data responses NICOR provided to intervenors, NICOR did not make any attempt to assess the financial risk of their proposed changes to customers. The daily tolerance penalty proposal also has a potential to significantly impact the cost of natural gas being delivered to the Chicago and Midwest markets.
Intervenors are scheduled to file their Rebuttal Testimony on January 14, 2021 and NICOR will file its Surrebuttal Testimony on January 29, 2021. If NICOR modifies any of its proposals before a Final Order is issued it must occur either through negotiation with the intervenors or made in its Surrebuttal testimony.
Asian Nat Gas Prices soar above $14 per MMBtu
In recent weeks, LNG export flows have been steadily increasing and are now near maximum output around 11 Bcf/d. This looks sustainable as long as Asian prices remain at or near 6-year highs over $14/MMBtu
Goldman Sachs likes Solar
Per a Jan 5, CNBC article – “We remain positive on solar equities heading into 2021 given ongoing secular growth amidst renewed policy support and attractive financing conditions, while leverage to emerging high-growth verticals like battery storage adds scarcity value to certain pockets of the group as well,” the firm said in a recent note to clients.